New findings on the Coronavirus mutation Experts warn against downplaying the Omicron variant
Düsseldorf · Virologists warn against underestimating the Omicron variant. There are indications that the mutant leads to fewer hospitalisations, but the long-term consequences are still unclear.
There is growing concern that the increasing number of Omicron cases in Germany will lead to the health care system becoming overburdened. According to Andreas Schuppert, physicist and science modeller at the Technical University in Aachen, it is plausible that there will be a nationwide incidence rate of over 2000, as is already the case in Denmark. If the number of infections continues to rise as feared, unvaccinated people could suffer from more intensive courses of the disease.
Hoping that Omicron will lead to relatively mild symptoms is dangerous, warns Clemens Wendtner, head physician of infectious diseases at the Munich Schwabing Clinic. Moreover, people with weak symptoms often do not get tested and thus continue to carry the virus. In addition, there is still no conclusive picture of long-Covid symptoms after a mild course of illness. Also, some antibody therapies do not work with Omicron. "So mild does not mean harmless," says Wendtner. Nevertheless, figures from the UK indicate that the severity of the disease is reduced. For short hospital stays, the hospitalisation rate there has fallen by between 20 and 25 percent, for longer stays by between 40 and 45 percent.
According to Jörg Timm, head of the Institute for Virology at the University Hospital Düsseldorf, this is probably because the virus mainly settles in the upper respiratory tract, but not so often in the lung cells. The course of the Omicron wave in England can only be compared to the situation in Germany to a certain extent, says Wendtner. There people have relied on a combination of vaccination and herd immunity; many people have recovered and thus have a certain degree of protection. "But here, with more than 25 per cent of the population unvaccinated, the conditions are different," Wendtner explains. "This will put a strain on our health system."
At München Klinik in Schwabing, 24 employees have already been infected with the Omicron variant. Operations have had to be postponed to keep the clinic running. In addition, the Bundeswehr is helping out in the administrative area. In order to stop the exponential growth of the virus and protect critical infrastructure, targeted action must be taken, says Schuppert. In Denmark, for example, it has been shown that the protective effect against an Omicron infection is low in those who have been vaccinated twice; the number of vaccination breakthroughs has risen sharply. Only the booster provides more reliable protection against infection. However, those who have been vaccinated twice are well protected against severe courses of the disease.
How long the booster vaccine protection lasts is unclear, says Timm. A fourth vaccination will probably have to be given, at least for groups who are at risk. "I think six months after the third vaccination is reasonable, but there is no data on that yet," Timm explains: "As long as we have so many unvaccinated people, we have only vaccination to protect our society."
(Originalartikel: Jörg Isringhaus/Translation: Jean Lennox)
