Stable weather conditions Mild weather in October - what it means for the winter
Bonn · October is on track to set a new record for high temperatures. Why is it so mild? How long will the summery weather last? And what does it mean for the coming winter?
October 2022 is one of the warmest since weather records began. At present, it is "really extremely mild," says Andreas Friedrich of the German Weather Service (DWD). Until now, October 2001 was the warmest month on record. But the current October has now caught up, the weather expert reports.
The average temperature for this October is around twelve degrees Celsius (53.6°F), as current weather data show. The coming days will also be warm. According to Friedrich, October of 2022 will likely go down as the warmest October since measurements began in 1881.
Friday night was the mildest evening ever measured at the end of an October in Germany. The front-runner was Werl in North Rhine-Westphalia. There, the temperature did not drop below 18.5 degrees Celsius. The previous record for the third part of October was set more than half a century ago on Oct. 24, 1966, in Lahr, Baden-Württemberg, with 16.7 degrees. "This shows that we are experiencing an extremely mild October right now," Friedrich said. When temperatures do not drop below 20 degrees Celsius (68°F) between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m., meteorologists call it a “tropical night”.
What is the reason for the unusually warm weather?
The reason for the current mild temperatures is a weather situation that remains stable. Germany currently lies between a large low-pressure area over the Atlantic in the west and a high-pressure area in the south-east. According to Friedrich, this creates south-westerly air currents. The wind from the south together with the sunshine, which also warms the air masses, results in the current mild temperatures.
According to the website wetteronline.de, it has also been unusually warm in other countries in recent weeks. For example, the record temperatures in Spain and France were up to 35 degrees Celsius. Even though many are likely to be pleased that the gas heating can stay off a little longer, the question arises as to what the mild temperatures mean for the winter.
Forecasts for the winter - What do the experts say?
It’s impossible to say right now what the weather prognosis is for winter or spring. What the weather is like in a month does not depend on what it was like the month before, he said. "The atmosphere doesn't take note of that," Friedrich says. Still, there are regular so-called seasonal trend forecasts. For this year's meteorological winter (beginning of December to the end of February), the weather expert has a prediction: it will be about 0.5 degrees warmer than in the past 30 years during this period.
Even if this statement is to be taken with great caution and is all but certain, the seasonal prognosis from the DWD initially points to a winter that is slightly too mild. According to Friedrich, there is some truth in the old farmers' saying "Warm October always brings a cold January/February", but this old wise tale is never a sure thing.
Climate change and the prognosis for the coming years
According to Friedrich, climate change is contributing to the current mild weather, but the main reason is the consistency in the large-scale weather pattern. As global warming continues, winters will probably become warmer and shorter on average in the future. However, there could always be outliers. The annual fluctuations are greater than the climate trend.
Original text: Meike Carstensen
Translation: ck
